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Probability of Potent Powers

AuthorMessage
Bosun
Feb 25, 2012
329
I've Been playing Pirate101 for almost as long as it has been around. as a result, I have reached the point of having 4 maxed pirates: my first, a Swash, then a Musket, then a Priv, then a Buck. I'm also working on a witch.

However, I have started to notice an interesting trend on two of those pirates: on both my Swash and my Priv, my power in the very first slot hardly ever comes out in battle. naturally, since the order of powers showing up is determined by the order they are in in the roster, these 2 powers are my strongest and most versatile. on my Swash, its the group hide, and on my Priv, it is Scorpion Swarm.

As I mentioned above: those 2 powers seem to almost never show up. I love the heck out of them, and while They are my most reliably effective combo starters, i simply never really get the opportunity to use them. I've done the numbers, and its come to the point where it is statistically unlikely that this is a coincidence. just for confirmation, I want to ask the community and the staff: do more powerful powers have a lower probability of popping up when its your turn to attack?

Pirate Overlord
Mar 16, 2012
10364
Blixet on Apr 16, 2015 wrote:
I've Been playing Pirate101 for almost as long as it has been around. as a result, I have reached the point of having 4 maxed pirates: my first, a Swash, then a Musket, then a Priv, then a Buck. I'm also working on a witch.

However, I have started to notice an interesting trend on two of those pirates: on both my Swash and my Priv, my power in the very first slot hardly ever comes out in battle. naturally, since the order of powers showing up is determined by the order they are in in the roster, these 2 powers are my strongest and most versatile. on my Swash, its the group hide, and on my Priv, it is Scorpion Swarm.

As I mentioned above: those 2 powers seem to almost never show up. I love the heck out of them, and while They are my most reliably effective combo starters, i simply never really get the opportunity to use them. I've done the numbers, and its come to the point where it is statistically unlikely that this is a coincidence. just for confirmation, I want to ask the community and the staff: do more powerful powers have a lower probability of popping up when its your turn to attack?
I've begun noticing this also, especially in the Tower or Smuggler's Arena, where you simply must have Black Fog show first. I would say the odds are close to 60-40 for it to show up first.
My Witch is farming Captain Blood and the favorite combo I use is Scorpion Swarm with the Grizzled Heart Banner following, ( so fun to sit back and let the scorpions defeat everything ). But it often doesn't show up!

Bosun
Feb 25, 2012
329
anecorbie on Apr 16, 2015 wrote:
I've begun noticing this also, especially in the Tower or Smuggler's Arena, where you simply must have Black Fog show first. I would say the odds are close to 60-40 for it to show up first.
My Witch is farming Captain Blood and the favorite combo I use is Scorpion Swarm with the Grizzled Heart Banner following, ( so fun to sit back and let the scorpions defeat everything ). But it often doesn't show up!
thats exactly my favorite thing to do with my priv! its a great feeling to get the scorpion swarm and toro's buff out on round one, then the beastmaster banner on round 2. It is SUPER frustrating though, to have such an amazing combo that i can hardly ever actually use. still, there are plenty of other options. its just . . . a waste, to have that potential, and see it so rarely come to fruition. however, i'm glad i'm not the only one experiencing this. hopefully a staff member can shine some light on the situation . . . or maybe even a vadima vision on powers that show up first in combat? *stares at anne*

Developer
As I mentioned above: those 2 powers seem to almost never show up. I love the heck out of them, and while They are my most reliably effective combo starters, i simply never really get the opportunity to use them. I've done the numbers, and its come to the point where it is statistically unlikely that this is a coincidence. just for confirmation, I want to ask the community and the staff: do more powerful powers have a lower probability of popping up when its your turn to attack?

Staff here!

The power sorting works exactly as described-- powers at the top of the list are more likely to show up. We would not do something capricious like tell you that the powers at the top of your list are more likely to show up and then write extra (secret!) code to mess with your #1 slot.

We are all at the mercy of the random number generator.

As a side piece of anecdotal data: I usually play a swashbuckler, Black Fog is in my #1 spot, and it is almost always available for me in my starting hand.

I can tell you (additionally) that your deck is shuffled and sorted before combat begins, so if you don't have what you need, start discarding. The deck is very strongly weighted such that the powers you have at the top of the list are probably in the top of your deck.

Again: RNG notwithstanding.

Bosun
Feb 25, 2012
329
Ratbeard on Apr 17, 2015 wrote:
As I mentioned above: those 2 powers seem to almost never show up. I love the heck out of them, and while They are my most reliably effective combo starters, i simply never really get the opportunity to use them. I've done the numbers, and its come to the point where it is statistically unlikely that this is a coincidence. just for confirmation, I want to ask the community and the staff: do more powerful powers have a lower probability of popping up when its your turn to attack?

Staff here!

The power sorting works exactly as described-- powers at the top of the list are more likely to show up. We would not do something capricious like tell you that the powers at the top of your list are more likely to show up and then write extra (secret!) code to mess with your #1 slot.

We are all at the mercy of the random number generator.

As a side piece of anecdotal data: I usually play a swashbuckler, Black Fog is in my #1 spot, and it is almost always available for me in my starting hand.

I can tell you (additionally) that your deck is shuffled and sorted before combat begins, so if you don't have what you need, start discarding. The deck is very strongly weighted such that the powers you have at the top of the list are probably in the top of your deck.

Again: RNG notwithstanding.
thanks a ton, ratbeard!

however, not to worry: I've already figured out the best way to get the perfect powers off start.

now, if you dont mind, i need to go refine my new foolproof method of tummy rubbing and head patting.

Ensign
Jun 13, 2014
48
In a card game where your hand is a set size, aggressive discarding is the key to winning.

Dread Pirate
Jun 13, 2011
2037
Ratbeard on Apr 17, 2015 wrote:
As I mentioned above: those 2 powers seem to almost never show up. I love the heck out of them, and while They are my most reliably effective combo starters, i simply never really get the opportunity to use them. I've done the numbers, and its come to the point where it is statistically unlikely that this is a coincidence. just for confirmation, I want to ask the community and the staff: do more powerful powers have a lower probability of popping up when its your turn to attack?

Staff here!

The power sorting works exactly as described-- powers at the top of the list are more likely to show up. We would not do something capricious like tell you that the powers at the top of your list are more likely to show up and then write extra (secret!) code to mess with your #1 slot.

We are all at the mercy of the random number generator.

As a side piece of anecdotal data: I usually play a swashbuckler, Black Fog is in my #1 spot, and it is almost always available for me in my starting hand.

I can tell you (additionally) that your deck is shuffled and sorted before combat begins, so if you don't have what you need, start discarding. The deck is very strongly weighted such that the powers you have at the top of the list are probably in the top of your deck.

Again: RNG notwithstanding.
Yeah. I noticed.

There is one quick question about our powers, Ratbeard...

I do enjoy the powers we train, yet, I feel that there's hardly enough to get past the mid-to-high level adventures, like those given through class trainers' power quests, E.G. I asked for more class trainer power exclusive quests for our class choice pirates to be added a little while ago. Will we see more new quests that give out more new exclusive class of choice powers given by our trainers like the ones we have? I would really like for our trainers to teach us more tougher lessons & unveil more of their stories. I do enjoy powers, but I feel we still need more powers to get by, & not just mentioning upcoming ones.

Ensign
Dec 30, 2011
8
When I did a statistical analysis (over a year ago) of power probabilities, I got:

59% chance of the top power appearing in the initial set
79% chance of at least one of the top two powers appearing
91% chance of at least one of the top three powers appearing

The 60/40 chance cited by another poster is in line with this. It is entirely possible that the probabilities have been tweaked since I did the analysis, but just based on normal play, I haven't noticed a significant change.

So unless things have changed, or Ratbeard has a different RNG than I do, I seriously doubt his "Black Fog is always available for me in my starting hand" assertion.

Bosun
Feb 25, 2012
329
LeahC1 on Apr 26, 2015 wrote:
When I did a statistical analysis (over a year ago) of power probabilities, I got:

59% chance of the top power appearing in the initial set
79% chance of at least one of the top two powers appearing
91% chance of at least one of the top three powers appearing

The 60/40 chance cited by another poster is in line with this. It is entirely possible that the probabilities have been tweaked since I did the analysis, but just based on normal play, I haven't noticed a significant change.

So unless things have changed, or Ratbeard has a different RNG than I do, I seriously doubt his "Black Fog is always available for me in my starting hand" assertion.
you clearly Have tried this more times than I. I simply did 15 fights in one of the least populated realms in the troggy area of skull island. on 2 of those fights, I got both of my first 2 powers. on another 2, i got just my second power listed, and on one more, i got just my first power listed. I dont doubt that Ratbeard is right, it seems to be that its just some raw luck.

Developer
LeahC1 on Apr 26, 2015 wrote:
When I did a statistical analysis (over a year ago) of power probabilities, I got:

59% chance of the top power appearing in the initial set
79% chance of at least one of the top two powers appearing
91% chance of at least one of the top three powers appearing

The 60/40 chance cited by another poster is in line with this. It is entirely possible that the probabilities have been tweaked since I did the analysis, but just based on normal play, I haven't noticed a significant change.

So unless things have changed, or Ratbeard has a different RNG than I do, I seriously doubt his "Black Fog is always available for me in my starting hand" assertion.
On the one hand there's RNG's and negative binomial distribution, and on the other hand there's observer bias and the fog of memory.

It's also fair to say that if I don't get Black Fog in my starting hand I would probably neither notice nor care, so that's bound to color my recollection.

Let's split the difference and say, "More often than not," as that would comport with your (rigorous, as usual) analysis.

Bosun
Jan 02, 2012
302
I have found that powers that come from another class have a lower frequency draw than powers from my class in the same position. So If I really count on a non-class power from gear or a pet, I put it in my top spot, even if I like casting a class power in the first round. One work-around for this is to put duplicate cards in my deck for the #2 and #3 positions. Then I almost always have the class power I like to use first round, even though a non-class card is on top of my deck.
Ratbeard, I think you were hinting at this, will you confirm my anecdotal hypothesis?

Bosun
Jan 02, 2012
302
Jack Harkness on Apr 17, 2015 wrote:
In a card game where your hand is a set size, aggressive discarding is the key to winning.
It can be. But in PvP, playing much of the hand you're dealt can keep you in the game after your opponent has run out of good options and started spamming normal attacks, like a mob. It pays to be flexible also.

Admiral
Jul 07, 2013
1124
Ratbeard on Apr 27, 2015 wrote:
On the one hand there's RNG's and negative binomial distribution, and on the other hand there's observer bias and the fog of memory.

It's also fair to say that if I don't get Black Fog in my starting hand I would probably neither notice nor care, so that's bound to color my recollection.

Let's split the difference and say, "More often than not," as that would comport with your (rigorous, as usual) analysis.
Every power in your deck is deadly and you don't rely on just one move! Yar, for many successful evil plans......

Virtuous Dante Ramsey

Developer
Row4n412 on Apr 28, 2015 wrote:
I have found that powers that come from another class have a lower frequency draw than powers from my class in the same position. So If I really count on a non-class power from gear or a pet, I put it in my top spot, even if I like casting a class power in the first round. One work-around for this is to put duplicate cards in my deck for the #2 and #3 positions. Then I almost always have the class power I like to use first round, even though a non-class card is on top of my deck.
Ratbeard, I think you were hinting at this, will you confirm my anecdotal hypothesis?
The only thing that affects the deck shuffle is the placement of the power in your power list.

Class or cross-class doesn't matter, trained or item-source doesn't matter, etc.